THE CUT LINE | Texas Children's Houston Open | Issue 3

Houston is next. The Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course runs March 26-29, two weeks out from Augusta. Scheffler headlines, defending champion Min Woo Lee is back, and a field full of Masters hopefuls are using this week to sharpen up before the biggest tournament of the year. It's a proper test. And the model has a clear view on who fits it.

Matt Fitzpatrick. Top pick. 16/1. Winner.

He came from three shots back on Sunday, went bogey-free, birdied the last to take the lead and held off David Lipsky by one shot. The week before, he'd bogeyed 18 at TPC Sawgrass to hand Cameron Young the win. He came to Tampa and settled the score in style.

That's two issues in a row where the headline pick has won outright. Issue 1, Cameron Young at 35/1. Issue 2, Matt Fitzpatrick at 16/1. The three each-way picks alongside Fitzpatrick didn't land, but when your main pick wins at 16/1 it covers everything else and then some. Season total sits at +53.50pts after two issues.

Also worth mentioning: Marco Penge, who lines up in my selections this week, finished T4 at Valspar. Jordan Smith, another selection this week, finished 3rd. The model is finding the right players.

Memorial Park looks like a power hitter's paradise on paper. It plays nearly 7,500 yards, three par 4s over 500 yards and two par 3s over 200 yards. But the data tells a different story. The rough here is kept short year-round as a public course, which means missing fairways barely costs you. What actually wins tournaments at Memorial Park is iron play and short game. The players who flush long irons into firm, fast greens and scramble well when they miss are the ones who end up on the leader board. Pure power without precision falls away here every year.

My model weights the data to reflect exactly that. Iron play into the green carries the heaviest influence, with accuracy off the tee, scrambling and putting making up the rest. Think ball striker first, bomber second.

This week also has a Masters subplot running underneath it. It's the last big event before Augusta for most players and the market reflects that, with Scheffler priced around 16/5. The model flags him as overpriced relative to his actual chance of winning. Defending champion Min Woo Lee returns here after a disappointing Players Championship where he finished 10 shots off the pace, looking to rediscover the form that saw him win here last year at 20 under. Collin Morikawa is listed in the field with no confirmation as off yet.

Jake Knapp (22/1): One of the most in-form players on tour this season and arguably the most underrated. He leads the entire PGA Tour in scoring average in 2026, has not finished outside the top 11 in five of his starts, and ranks second on tour for overall performance. He missed the cut at The Players but that was only his second missed cut of the year. The market prices him around 22/1 but his numbers this season say that is too big. A Masters dark horse who needs a strong result here to keep building his case.

Rickie Fowler (25/1): Four top-20 finishes already this season including a top-10 at Bay Hill. His form has been quietly building all year and he is overdue a win. Memorial Park suits his creative short game and scrambling ability. A player peaking at the right time heading into the Masters.

Brooks Koepka (25/1): Was a consultant during the 2019 redesign of this course and it shows in his results here. His iron play has been improving week on week since his return and he posted a strong T18 at Valspar with his approach game looking sharp again. Rounding into form three weeks before Augusta is exactly the plan.

MY SELECTIONS

Ryan Gerard (45/1, 1pt each way): Top of my rankings this week. His iron play from distance is among the best in this field and the market has not priced it in. Memorial Park rewards exactly what he does best.

Min Woo Lee (22/1, 1pt each way): Defending champion with a point to prove after a tough Players Championship. He hit 20 under here last year and his touch around these greens is exceptional. The data has him second in the field for course fit and this course suits him as well as anywhere on tour.

Marco Penge (28/1, 1pt each way): Just finished T4 at Valspar. A PGA Tour rookie who is clearly making himself at home on tour. His iron play numbers rank him well for what Memorial Park demands and 28/1 is a price that does not reflect where his game is right now.

Jordan Smith (80/1, 1pt each way): Finished 3rd at Valspar last week. Arrives in Houston in form and his approach stats rank him well for this course. 80/1 for a player who just posted a top-3 finish is a generous price.

Max McGreevy (140/1, 1pt each way): The strongest value signal in the model this week. His data profile says the market has significantly underpriced him. The type of long shot the model was built to find.

Scheffler is the obvious call at 16/5 and there is a version of this week where he runs away with it. He has finished runner-up here three times and plays in his home state of Texas. But the model does not like paying that price. The real story is further down the board. Ryan Gerard's iron play is elite and this course puts an iron in your hand on almost every approach. Min Woo Lee is the defending champion, arrives with something to prove after The Players, and the data backs him harder than the market reflects. Two English rookies in form, Marco Penge and Jordan Smith, just went T4 and 3rd at Valspar. If the model is reading this course right, at least one of them features again on Sunday.

Please gamble responsibly. This is editorial analysis, not financial advice.

1pt each way per selection. Updated every Monday.

Season Total (Issues 1-2): +53.50pts

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