LAST WEEK
Five selections at the Valero. None of them fired. Morikawa's back kept him out before a ball was struck, which cost a point straight away. Si Woo, Mitchell, McNealy, and Spieth all had the right profile for TPC San Antonio and none of them delivered. The course punished everyone who wasn't Spaun by Sunday afternoon. And Spaun was in the Worth Watching section at 33/1. The model had the right player, I put him in the wrong column, and he went on to win the tournament. That one stings and I'll own it. The two big wins earlier in the season absorb a week like this. The process that found those winners hasn't changed.
THIS WEEK: THE MASTERS, AUGUSTA NATIONAL
This is what the season has been building to. Augusta National rewards one thing above everything else: hitting the right part of the right green. The course looks wide on television. It is not wide. Every approach shot has a correct answer and a punishing wrong one, and the model has been built around that this week, with iron play the dominant factor.
The forecast looks benign. Low 70s, minimal rain, no wind to speak of early in the week. Firmer conditions as the week progresses will only make precise iron play more important. Get the ball in the wrong quadrant on a fast green and you're making a long walk back to even par.
The field is as strong as it gets. Scheffler, Rahm, McIlroy, DeChambeau all at the top of the market. The data on some of those names is incomplete because of injury or limited PGA Tour appearances this year, which is where the model finds its edge.
WORTH WATCHING
Robert MacIntyre (25/1) Came within a putt of forcing a playoff at the Valero on Sunday and is playing some of the best golf of his career. The Augusta fit isn't elite in the model but his form heading in is as sharp as anyone in the field.
Russell Henley (40/1) Consistently good iron player who tends to be forgotten in Masters previews. The model likes his approach numbers and he has a habit of making cuts and staying relevant on Sunday at Augusta. The price is workable.
Ryan Gerard (125/1) The model flags him as a genuine edge at the price. Elite approach numbers, enough distance to attack the par-5s. First Masters start is the risk. The data says the game belongs here.
MY SELECTIONS
This week you get access to the top 10
Tommy Fleetwood (20/1) The best around-the-green player on tour in 2026 and the model scores him as one of the cleanest fits in the entire field. He keeps finding himself near the top of leaderboards at Augusta and this week the numbers are pointing at him harder than ever.
Matt Fitzpatrick (18/1) He was 16/1 in Issue 2 and won. Now on the best run of his career, the model scores him in the 94th percentile for Augusta fit, and the kind of precise iron player this course was designed to punish or reward. Augusta rewards hitting the correct part of the green. So does Fitzpatrick.
Si Woo Kim (45/1) The model's top pick this week. One of the best ball-strikers in the field, made seven of eight Augusta cuts in his career, and flagged as a genuine edge at this price. Not glamorous. Consistently dangerous.
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1) Won this tournament, knows these greens better than almost anyone in the field, and his approach play this season has been excellent. The model's history boost for Matsuyama is one of the strongest of any player this week.
Maverick McNealy (66/1) Precise, patient, methodical. Exactly the type Augusta rewards. The model scores him as a top value pick this week and 66/1 each-way is a price worth attacking.
Collin Morikawa (33/1) The model scores him higher than anyone in the field for Augusta fit. The approach weighting is the dominant factor this week and Morikawa is the best approach player when fit. If he's right physically, 33/1 is wrong.
Cameron Young (18/1) Issue 1, 35/1, The Players Championship. The model scores him in the 91st percentile for Augusta fit and he's one of the longest hitters in the field. The par-5s are where this tournament is won and lost. He attacks them.
Nicolai Hojgaard (66/1) Trending up all season. T2 at Houston, the model scores him as an edge at this price. Augusta debut last year was a learning experience. The game has moved on since.
Kurt Kitayama (110/1) The model scores him well for Augusta fit and flags him as an edge at 110/1. An elite ball-striker who consistently gains on approach, which is exactly what this course asks for. The price reflects a lack of Augusta history, not a lack of game.
Sam Stevens (175/1) Strong value verdict from the model at this price. Elite approach numbers, scores well for Augusta fit. Minimal Augusta history explains the odds. At 175s it costs almost nothing for a potentially huge return.
THE CUT LINE TAKE
The market has built this around three or four names and Tommy Fleetwood isn't one of them. He leads the tour in around-the-green play in 2026. Augusta is going to be decided on the short grass, on recovery shots, on the creativity and nerve to get up and down from places that aren't straightforward. Every year there's a moment on the back nine on Sunday where someone scrambles to save par and it turns the tournament. Fleetwood makes those moments count. He's my pick to finally get his major.
POINTS TABLE
1pt each-way per selection. Win at odds = big points. No place = -1pt. Updated every Monday.
Issue | Tournament | Pick | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | The Players Championship | Cameron Young 35/1 | Win | +43pts |
2 | Valspar Championship | Matt Fitzpatrick 16/1 | Win | +18pts |
3 | Houston Open | Min Woo Lee | T3 place | +5.5pts |
3 | Houston Open | Others x3 | No place | -3pts |
4 | Valero Texas Open | All five picks | No place | -4pts |
Season Total: 45.50pts
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