THE CUT LINE | Valero Texas Open | Issue 3

Two wins from Three issues. Cameron Young at 35/1. Matt Fitzpatrick at 16/1. Min Woo eachway. The model keeps delivering.

Season total: +49.50pts

Mixed results in Houston. Min Woo Lee came through with an each-way return at T3. The model had him as a strong fit and he delivered. The others didn't fire. Gerald, Penge, McGreevy, and Smith all missed or disappointed, and that stings. But the two big wins in the opening issues mean the season is still well in the green, and the process that found those winners is the same process that built this week's card.

Before we get into the picks, Gary Woodland. If you watched Sunday at Memorial Park and didn't feel something, check your pulse. A man who had brain surgery in 2023, spent months fighting PTSD, and stood on the tee at Houston not knowing if he'd ever win again. He didn't just win. He won by five shots. He cried walking up 18 while the crowd chanted his name. Sport doesn't give you moments like that very often. Whatever happens at Augusta next week, Gary Woodland deserved every second of Sunday.

One week before the Masters and the tour heads to San Antonio for a course that separates ball-strikers from everyone else. TPC San Antonio is not subtle about what it wants. Hit your irons. Hit them well. Hit them all week. The greens here are the hardest to find in regulation on the entire tour, just 58%, which means even the best players are grinding every single round.

The wind makes it harder. San Antonio in late March can be brutal. In 2015 the morning wave averaged nearly four shots worse than the afternoon. That kind of scoring variance doesn't just affect your scorecard, it affects your head. The players who stay patient when the wind bites are the ones still standing on Sunday.

Two big names won't be here this week. Woodland and Hojgaard both earned Masters spots in Houston and are skipping San Antonio. The field is a little softer for it, which opens the door for some of the mid-range prices to make noise.

Robert MacIntyre (18/1) Three straight lefties have won this event. Coincidence? Maybe. But MacIntyre's ball-striking is in excellent shape and this course suits the way he plays: controlled, patient, never blowing up. The price feels about right which is why he's here rather than in the selections.

J.J. Spaun (33/1) Won here in 2022 at 219/1 in one of the more remarkable weeks you'll see. The course clearly suits him and he showed well at the Valspar a few weeks back. Keep an eye on the early rounds.

Ryo Hisatsune (35/1) Quietly one of the best iron players in the field this week. Finished 5th here last year and his approach numbers this season have been excellent. Trending in the right direction at a workable price.

Collin Morikawa (20/1) The model loves him this week and it's not hard to see why. There is nobody in this field who hits irons like Morikawa when he's right. The only doubt is his back. He played one hole at The Players before withdrawing and hasn't been seen since. If he's healthy, he's the most dangerous player in the field. That's the bet you're making. He has also won this season already.

Si Woo Kim (20/1) Has the full package for this course. Consistent off the tee, elite iron player, and a track record at TPC San Antonio that stands up. The market has him level with Morikawa which feels right. One of the steadiest players in the field and a genuine threat.

Keith Mitchell (40/1) This is the one I want. Mitchell has never finished outside the top 26 in four appearances at this course. His iron play has been outstanding recently, gaining over four strokes on approach in three of his last four events. The market is sleeping on him at 40s and the model has him as one of the best fits in the field this week. Each-way all day.

Maverick McNealy (25/1) Controlled, precise, never gives the course anything. Exactly the type TPC San Antonio rewards. Solid course fit and in decent form. A strong each-way option at the price.

Jordan Spieth (18/1) The model isn't fully sold at this price but the history here is hard to ignore. He's won at TPC San Antonio, he grew up in Texas, and he's been trending back into form after a solid Valspar. Sometimes the data and the gut point in the same direction. This is one of those weeks.

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The market has made this a three-horse race at the top: Fleetwood, Aberg, Morikawa, with Spieth and Straka as the next tier. That feels lazy. Keith Mitchell at 40/1 has better course fit than half the players priced ahead of him and he's coming into this week with the kind of iron form that wins at TPC San Antonio. The wind will shake the leaderboard by Saturday. The player still standing will be the one who hit fairways, hit greens, and never panicked. Mitchell does all three.

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